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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

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Entain highlighted data from H2 Gambling Capital that warned black market stakes in the UK are expected to nearly double from £17 billion ($22.7 billion) in 2025 to over £33 billion by 2028.

Entain emphasised offshore operators do not employ the same player protection measures and anti-money laundering standards that licensed companies must.

The company also highlighted its own research that suggests over 80% of consumers cannot “confidently distinguish” licensed operators from unlicensed ones.