Lucky Little Devil

How to play Lucky Little Devil

The president’s critical view of betting is on par with other candidates. Studies by the Workers’ Party (PT) indicate that three out of four Brazilians are against betting establishments. This is the president’s justification against the sector.

What the president didn’t address is the tax revenue from betting.

In 2025, Brazil collected almost BRL10 billion ($1.97 billion) in tax revenue from the licensed sector. In the first seven months of this year alone, BRL8.7 billion generated by the activity was delivered to public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service itself estimates that the sector should reach BRL16 billion in revenue during 2026.

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Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.

Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.

Based on its projections, EKG sees the overall sports wagering industry growing 8% year-over-year, outpacing the current baseline growth rate of 5% (a figure that strips out temporary boosts from the 2026 World Cup).

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The Yahoo Finance prediction market section was taken out in April. The companies have now confirmed that the larger deal is also off, as reported by Bloomberg. 

Yahoo said Polymarket is still an advertising partner and suggested the two could collaborate on other projects in the future. Polymarket has not provided any public explanation for the end of the data partnership. 

The news comes as prediction market operators continue to form alliances with major media outlets. These deals allow news outlets to embed event contract data into their reporting and offer prediction platforms more visibility to investors and news audiences.